The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in June — sequentially the same as May’s +2.7%. This +2.7% number for June compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.4% year-over-year in June (sequentially down by -10 basis points from May’s +3.5%). This marks the 39th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2026 to +1.7%. This is a bit of a step back from both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, each of which produced slightly better results. Times remain… not easy.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +3.6%. On a pre-pandemic basis (compared to Q2 2019), the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 2026 is at +38.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.