The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.8% in September — sequentially -40 basis points lower than August’s +2.2%. This +1.8% number for August compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.5% year-over-year in September (sequentially up by +10 basis points from August’s +3.4%). This marks the 42nd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2026 to +1.1%. This is a step back — about a percentage point sequentially lower than the Q2 2026 results. The weak Q3 was caused in part by food-safety issues, but also reflective of the challenges the restaurant industry continues to face in attracting business from folks who live in lower-income and middle-income households.