Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.8% in March 2026, -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 57.0% set in February 2026. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q1 2026 left something to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in March — sequentially down by -50 basis points since February’s +2.4%. This +1.9% number for March compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially down by -10 basis points from February’s +3.9%). This marks the 36th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2026 to +2.2%. Glass-half full, this marks the best quarter for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard since a +3.6% number was posted back in Q4 2023. Glass-half empty, the +2.2% figure for Q1 2026 is still below the long-term (Q1 2015-Q4 2025) quarterly median of +2.6%. Things are getting better, but not rapidly so.