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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index (3/28/2024)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to -1.0%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -15.7% number from Q1 2020, the -1.2% figure from Q1 2021, the +19.5% number from Q1 2022, and the +8.6% figure from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2024 is at +6.9%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

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Denny's Corporation (DENN)
Mark Kalinowski

DENN: Adjusting Our Estimates (3/28/2024)

This morning, we published an industry report entitled “Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index.” We encourage you to read that report in conjunction with this Denny’s note.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index (3/27/2024)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +4.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.6% figure from Q1 2020, +15.3% number from Q1 2021, the +7.7% figure from Q1 2022, and the +11.2% number from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2024 is at +40.3%. This +40.3% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and mid-March.

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McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Mark Kalinowski

MCD: How Much in Sales Could the Krispy Kreme Partnership Add?

Earlier today, McDonald’s and Krispy Kreme (KREM; Not Rated) announced that they “are teaming up for a national expansion. Fans will begin spotting Krispy Kreme doughnuts in their local McDonald’s restaurants later this year as part of a phased market rollout across the country. Nationwide availability at participating restaurants is expected by the end of 2026. Three of Krispy Kreme’s most popular doughnuts will be delivered fresh to McDonald’s restaurants every day. They’ll be available individually, or in boxes of six, starting at breakfast and lasting throughout the day – while supplies last.” For more info:

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